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Daily Bitcoin and Crypto Analysis

Daily BTC Analysis

July 28, 2021

Matt Blom

Bitcoin has fallen back below $40,000 today, as the denial from Amazon of the impending acceptance of Bitcoin as a payment method came through. Prices returned to our support level of $36,500 before rallying once more, a sign that this move may be supported by more than just click-bait headlines.

With the unlock from Grayscale over and with the shift from FUD to more price-supportive news stories, the bulls are still enjoying a moment of reduced pressure to protect the key $30,000 level.

Post the unlock, we have seen the negative Grayscale premium push higher, now reading -5%. If this is to be seen as a pure supply/demand metric, it is showing that hodling isn't just for those that own their own keys, as those wishing to redeem and exit have been fulfilled and are probably already feeling the FOMO.

The Canadian Purpose Bitcoin ETF has also seen an uptick in interest. Although this could just be a move to a more economical fund from past Grayscale investors, it is a positive signal nonetheless.

As prices sit towards the top end of the trading range that spans back to May 21st, we would be encouraged by further attempts to test resistance. Failure to execute on this will see the move fizzle out and prices, once again, move south to challenge key support levels, with $33,600 the level the bears need to break in order to change the mood back to fear.

Technical Analysis

A potentially large move is unfolding, although in a currently respecting range of $29,000 to $41,000. Fibonacci levels on a daily chart note the $64,823 ATH to the recent low of $28,793 with a 50% retrace, giving a target of $46,808. Oscillators need to reset before a push higher, but need to create a higher low to confirm the leg up.

Bitcoin has fallen back within the uptrend channel after pushing to a high of $40,550. Channel support is now seen at $35,500, and with resistance at $38,200, a break above will see a swift move. Pullbacks do happen and supports below channel support sit at $34,800, $32,000, and $30,000. Resistance overhead lies at $41,200, with a swift move to $45,000 possible if it were to break.

The weekly bullish engulfing candle has seen a follow through in buying. The Bitcoin Dominance is also back on the rise towards 50.

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