The last 9 days have seen an impressive rally, with the fear of trading with a $20,000 handle now a distant memory: Such is the speed of emotion within this market.
Supporting this rally, we have also witnessed strong outflows from exchanges.
Over 80,000 BTC has headed out the door this week, off to be hodled as the faint memory of BTC being a scarce asset slowly returns to our minds, post the fall from May's ATH.
We are still watching the miner flows, and we are seeing miners reduce their holdings into this strength. This, as we mentioned a few weeks back, is actually a great sign, as the miners now feel confident enough to sell down inventory, without affecting the underlying price in a material way.
But let's head back to the exchange flows. On July 20th, ie: 9 days ago, FTX announced a $900m series B fund raise, stating that the funds would be used for 'acquisitions.'
It seems to have slipped our minds that those 'acquisitions' might include Bitcoin. An extra 20,000 BTC have appeared in their reserves. At an average price of $35,000, that's about $700M.
I wonder what they will spend the other $200M on?
The trend-line supports at $37,500 and $36,500 with resistance overhead at $41,000 and $46,000. It is time to raise take-profit tailing stops on long position to protect capital.
The market cap 200 day moving average at $1.6tn has supported the market from $1.2tn low, but it may stall here. RSI and MACD oscillators both showing positive momentum still exists, with a preference to buy on pullbacks to the trend line which offers support at $37,500. A Bitcoin close above $42,000 is required for this rally to continue, or we may see a dump/pullback. We have had 8 green candles. There has not been more than 10 consecutive green candles since 2013.
It is looking good for a second consecutive positive close, although the MACD indicator still hasn’t turned positive the RSI has turned up on the weekly.
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BTC rose another 3% yesterday, currently at $44,600 and tantalizingly close to the 45K resistance/support.
Bitcoin has enjoyed a positive trading session today, with prices up 7% post this morning's news that China had taken some small steps to avoid an immediate default from Evergrande. The addition of liquidity to the banking system may just be a shock absorber for next week's action, or it could be the first shot in a sustained program to assist with Evegrande's woes.