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Daily Bitcoin and Crypto Analysis

Daily BTC Analysis

August 25, 2021

Bitcoin has traded slightly lower today, registering a drop of 2%. The 200d moving average at $45,961 is sitting just below the upward trend line at $46,500. This would be the area we would expect buying interest to prevent further declines. Should we not reach that far before returning to $50,000, then we can assume the rally is back on.

Fun fact time: if you account for lost coins, 84% of the total Bitcoin in circulation has not moved for 6 months or longer. The thing with measuring Bitcoin's long-term holders is that, as time ticks by, the hodl mentality just keeps making this stat look more and more impressive. 

As we all know, there is a limited supply of coins, and if those in possession prefer to keep them, then at some point, the supply crunch becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. 

Second fun fact: Only 9% of Americans and 8% of Brits, own any crypto. Which makes the future potential for a supply shock all the more worrying—in a good way.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin remains in an upward channel with a small pullback to $48,834 overnight.

Support is seen at $43,900 and $42,500 on the daily. Minor overhead resistance is between $50,000 to $51,000 with a firm resistance between $57,500 and $58,500. As for oscillators, positive momentum is building on MACD, and the RSI is at 67% i.e., a very bullish zone. 

Bitcoin is trending higher and bouncing up off a rising demand line. There is no reprieve for the bears, with pullbacks well supported. We're seeing near-term support at $48,100 and 46,800, with resistance at $51,000. The total market cap is holding above $2tn, and any bitcoin consolidation is seen as positive for alt coins. Note, gold looks to have turned back up and equities remain firm. Many bond yields are negative outright and a real rate of return basis. Globally, Central Banks are holding off on tapering. Their QE or pushing back rate hikes as the Covid delta strain impacts on “lower for longer” interest rates. All-in-all, the sentiment is Bitcoin friendly.

As for the weekly, bitcoin is on track for $57,500-$58,500 with the drums beating for ATH above at $65,000. The weekly MACD is going positive, which means a continuation of the long-term uptrend. Support is seen between $40,000 and $41,000 on this weekly chart, with the $29,000 to $30,000 acting as firm support.

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