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Daily Bitcoin and Crypto Analysis

Daily BTC Analysis

August 26, 2021
After starting the day on the back foot, Bitcoin has rallied from trend support and is currently 2% up on the day. There is still some work for the bulls to do, but the reaction post the challenge of key support levels will encourage them to spur them on.

The bears will be hoping this bounce is short lived, keenly aware that taking the market below $47,500 will nullify the momentum from the previous 3 weeks.

We are still watching on-chain metrics with interest. From an activity point-of-view, we are lagging behind the explosive growth that was seen in late 2020/early 2021: But, there could well be a explanation for this.

The total amount of active addresses is running well below what we would expect for a rally to continue from these levels. However, we know that those who buy Bitcoin have a tendency to hodl. Should we expect to see an increase in activity after the mass adoption event of the last 12 months?

The same logic can be applied to the steady Bitcoin Google searches. Once you have found your way to an exchange, news and pricing, do you really need to be 'Googling' Bitcoin? Probably not.

The network itself is growing again post the china miner migration, (indicating an increase in the upcoming difficulty adjustment of roughly 12%), and demonstrates the speed at which technology can be rolled out.

The only fly in the ointment is the increase in exchange balances. This is normally an early indication that the supply hitting the market will dampen price advances.

Within the next few days, we will find out if this will prevent the market from breaking up through the $50,000 level, or worse still, take us straight down through key support at $47,500.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin is consolidating over the last 2 days in a tight range, although it's giving the bears a small window of opportunity. Moving averages are looking good as the 50-day crossed 100-day, which is the start of a bullish signal. Support is seen at $46,900, the 200-day MA is at $45,950, and at last week’s low of around $44,000.

There has been an intraday pullback with Bitcoin remaining in the uptrend channel. If Bitcoin drops out of the channel, we may see a quick drop to $44,000. However, there is some work to do with support at $46,800 first and topside resistance at $48,100 and $51,000, respectively.

Bitcoin on a weekly chart has pushed to new highs and is consolidating after a 5-week rally. Price action remains bullish to the upside as long as the close is above $44,000 on a weekly basis, with a primary target of $57,000 then a secondary target of the ATH at $65,000. If this move fulfills all potential, we will see $87,000.

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