Bitcoin has fallen further today, registering a 4.5% decline. I asked the question earlier in the week: What happens should the market return to $47,500?
The answer is in: Nervous longs take some off the table. For me, this was always going to be the 'emotional' reaction to the market's failure to climb above $50,000, a level that was always going to be tough to break through at the first time of asking.
Where we go from here will be decided tomorrow. The annual Jackson Hole event will see the Federal Reserve Chairman provide guidance to the world's market on when, if ever, the Fed might taper their $120B a month asset purchases.
I've been following the words of central bankers for over 20 years: I've been surprised twice and I see no surprises tomorrow. The Fed will continue to support the economy.
I'm not alone with this view. The S&P just hit another record level.
Bitcoin is not a fan of tapering events. If anything, its existence has been propelled to prominence as a mainstream investment asset purely because of central bankers' failure to deal with the financial crisis in 2008 that gave birth to the genesis block.
So why are stock markets rallying while Bitcoin is falling?
Well, if you really want to buy something, it's always nice to get a discount.
The movement of nearly $2B of stablecoins to exchanges backs up my view that this dip is just another one to buy...
Unless the unthinkable actually happens and the Fed go frugal.
The market tested $49,000, failed, and then dropped back to test the $46,800 support. The 200-day MA below is the next level to watch on downside, near $46,000, and then the $44,000 level below that.
Intraday ranges of $2,000 are not large, but when price action stalls, it can hint to a reversal. Note, we have broken outside the channel we have been in during August. Bitcoin needs to rally and close above $51,000 to remain bullish. Any break lower below the $46,800 support could see a move lower towards $44,000 and $42,500.
Bitcoin remains in a strong uptrend, although so far this week, we have seen consolidation. A break above $51,000 or below $44,000 is required to potentially see bigger moves. The MACD is in positive territory and bullish.
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It looks like crypto isn’t correlated to traditional markets, at least not during this past session.
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