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Daily Bitcoin and Crypto Analysis

Daily BTC Analysis

September 3, 2021
Bitcoin is up 1% on the day, which actually feels like a disappointment after the market printed above $50,000 but was unable to sustain the momentum needed to drive prices through a wall of resistance.

With exchange balances falling once again, this sell wall at $50,000 will not persist forever.

However, those most likely responsible for the selling are still sitting on quite a lot of Bitcoin. The miners are finally confident enough to reduce their holdings. We have mentioned that this is actually a sign of strength, as it doesn't pay to drive down the total value of your assets by letting a few thousand BTC hit the market.

We can now presume the miners feel that the market can absorb the supply.

Which bring us to the continuing oddity that is the Grayscale Trust and its negative premium. Another dip lower seems to run counter intuitive to the theme of a healthy bull market. Surely, you buy the discount and later, some diamonds?

As with everything in life, it's never that simple. The demand that saw GBTC command strong positive premiums has cast its eyes in a different direction. The impending announcement from the SEC that Bitcoin ETFs can take their rightful place in the market will only offer even more products to those looking for 'a bit of cash and carry.'

The rearview mirror will unravel the Grayscale mystery, or, lack of mystery, and plain misery.

And I thought it was just OTC desks that were offered Bitcoin at a 16% discount to the market...

Technical Analysis 

Bitcoin held the 200-day MA and month-end profit taking with a surge higher today. A potential Golden Cross is forming as the 50, 100, and 200-day MA converge on the upswing. A larger A-B-C-D bullish pattern is forming, with a target of $87,000. We are seeing support levels at $46,000 and $44,000, with resistance at $57,500 and $65,000. ETH broke resistance at 3,360 from late August. Technical resistance for the asset lies at $4,075, with alt coins following in hot pursuit.

Yesterday’s price action saw Bitcoin bounce off the $46,800 support and drive price higher overnight, taking out the $49,300 resistance level. This created stop-losses, which quickly saw Bitcoin regain the $50,000 and run at last week's highs before settling down. Across this week, higher lows in price have produced a buy wall of support which the bears have been unable to breach. Alt coins had a very good day, helped by Bitcoin dominance fading toward 42% and heading lower. Many of these Alt coins are supported by speculative retail interest, attracted by high-yield-farming, driven by defi. There is much excitement around NFT projects in art, music, sports, and gaming tokens, which creates a perfect storm and will see fresh buying in digital assets.

The technicals are very bullish on the weekly as the MACD goes positive and the RSI is sitting at 60% (and rising). While earlier the candle seemed indecisive, we are now forming a green one: A close above $50,000 would be strong. Note: Last time we saw these bullish technical conditions, Bitcoin rallied from $12,200 to $65,000 (5x).

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