Inflows to exchanges have picked up, which is never a welcome sign when the market is attempting to recover from a large, one day drop. Hopefully, we do not see these coins come to market and that their appearance is purely precautionary.
The miners have reduced their selling, a sign that they are also concerned about the fragility of the market.
More of a concern than either of the above is the below. If we look at the average retracement in Bitcoin, we can see they last between 7 and 12 days. We are on day 3, and although we dropped 20% in one day, the bears may not be done just yet. As we can see from the below chart, Bitcoin isn't one to dump and bounce in a day or two. It's generally a more drawn out, prolonged period of pain and anguish.
What you can also see from the above chart, however, is that buying the dips is a win. How big does this dip get?
We will probably find out come Monday.
Bitcoin is pivoting around the 200-day moving average at $46,000 and looking indecisive. Yesterday’s flash crash and reported freezing of many exchanges during volatility has many traders sidelined, which shows in today’s reasonably tight Bitcoin price range. Any bounce from here may well see sellers towards $48,000 and $50,000 now, as nervousness sentiment abounds. Downside supports are holding at $44,000 and $42,500, with a close below $40,000 requiring a rethink. Now is a good time to reflect on trading strategies and capital protection: how to place trailing “take profits” and where.
Intraday consolidation is found inside a trading range between $45,300 and $46,750. A break lower will see another test of $44,000 and $42,500 as the next level of support. A break higher and $48,000 and $49,530 will become levels to watch. There is no edge in technical analysis as of yet on this short-term chart.
The long term bitcoin chart remains bullish while trading within the $40,000 to $50,000 range. Oscillators are in positive territory and showing good momentum.
Subscribe here to the full report.
BTC rose another 3% yesterday, currently at $44,600 and tantalizingly close to the 45K resistance/support.
Bitcoin has enjoyed a positive trading session today, with prices up 7% post this morning's news that China had taken some small steps to avoid an immediate default from Evergrande. The addition of liquidity to the banking system may just be a shock absorber for next week's action, or it could be the first shot in a sustained program to assist with Evegrande's woes.