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Daily Bitcoin and Crypto Analysis

Daily BTC Analysis

September 11, 2021
The sell-off in Bitcoin continues, as prices dropped 2% today. As flagged, the FUD tombola is back in action, as central bankers and governments use this week's weakness to amplify the noise from their soap boxes.

Sweden's Riksbank Governor: "Bitcoin is like trading stamps and the collapse of currency not issued by a central bank is apparently, inevitable."

Bank of Mexico Governor: "Bitcoin is a high-risk investment and a poor store of value, and its use is akin to barter."

RBI Governor: "The RBI still has major and serious reservations about Bitcoin, and would like credible explanations and answers on the value it could bring the Indian economy."

I think we can see a 'shocking' theme! Central bankers do not like Bitcoin. Who could have ever guessed? If acceptance is the first step towards transformation, I have a feeling central bankers will be the very last people on the planet to accept Bitcoin.

It seems this morning's conference call between Sweden, India, and Mexico was also joined by China. Only this week, China are taking aim at NFTs.

"Once market enthusiasm wanes and the hype cools, the value of these many strange NFTs will greatly decrease."

I might give them that one... but then again, there's an NFT release on Monday that I'm buying as many of as possible, so hopefully that enthusiasm and hype lasts a little bit longer.

Back to BTC.

Exchange balances have hit a 3 year low.

There is now fewer Bitcoin available to buy on exchanges than there was in October 2018. Given the price action this week, and the likelihood that it continues to weaken over the weekend, this is a clear sign that those with a longer term view are just happy to be buying, storing and hodling Bitcoin below $50,000.

We certainly live in interesting times.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin has taken a breather while some alt coins bounce and rally hard. The price is holding above the 200-day MA at $45,925, at the time of writing. A support line at $45,200 is quite crucial in the near term as a break below and close under $45,000 will see a move towards $42,500. If Bitcoin holds and rallies, it has overhead resistance and supply at $48,000 and $51,000 on the daily.

The short term chart has no edge with support at $45,200, $44,000, and $42,500. Resistance levels are at $48,000, $49,530, and $51,000. Day traders can use range trading strategies, but need to keep stops tight as we wait for a break outside the $45,200 to $47,300 range. It was ETH that dragged BTC through $50,000 towards $53,000 with El Salvador and NFT hype: I suspect it's worth watching ETH for a hint as to direction on BTC.

The larger timeframe says it all, the range is $40,000 to $57,500. Do nothing at these levels. Technically, the weekly BTC chart looks fine and remains bullish, unless we see a close below $40,000. Topside action will see a move towards $57,500 and ATH at $65,000.

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