Now, I'm all for a bit of Bitcoin PR, as you've probably figured out from reading my report for the last 18 months, but it does concern me a little when the best 'we' can muster is a report stating crypto inflows have risen for the 5th week in a row.
And for that report to be accompanied by the above graphic - not exactly the kind of confidence boosting picture we are after this week.
Let us hope this little uptick in exchange balances is just a blip and doesn't become a 'thing.' Thankfully, exchange inflows to spot and derivative exchanges are equally balanced, which although is not great, it is better than just a spike of inflows to spot exchanges, followed by the market having to absorb additional selling pressure.
Evergrande will likely dominate the news for a few more days, and then, we can move onto the US debt ceiling and settle in for some politics. The world's largest holder of US treasuries? China - which appears very ready to make an example of Evergrande. The timing is interesting and with the world's markets facing a potential period of risk-off, it would appear that a quick resolution to the US debt ceiling could become essential.
Or all hell could break loose.
It has been a wild ride in Bitcoin as the market saw capitulation from leveraged players, and long-term hodlers dug in, as they have seen this all before. For the bulls, a bullish Japanese candlestick pinbar formed off the bottom today: It will be interesting to see if this plays out and a push towards $47,000 can be made. For the bears, a lower high may be in place now on the recent rally to just above $48,000, causing a “sell rallies” mentality in the short-term. Global markets all seem jittery on the back of China’s Evergrande, and it’s not over until it’s over. Will the PBOC come to the rescue and soothe markets?
Panic-selling in Bitcoin on a break of $44,000 saw a swift move to the $40,000 major support, as leveraged longs were flushed out. The $40,000 price level held and Bitcoin bounced hard. Similar price action was seen in ETH. Bitcoin is now sitting just above the $42,600 support, with resistance at $44,150, $45,235, and $46,720.
Testing the lower side of the range on the weekly chart, Bitcoin needs to close below $40,000 before we reassess the July/Aug bull run. Oscillators are not giving much, with positive momentum in the MACD and neutral momentum on the RSI.
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No surprise here, right. We’ve been talking and expecting new all-time highs for the past few days.
You can probably feel it, see it, hear it. Crypto markets are higher. We haven’t reached new all-time highs but, boy, are we close!