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Daily Bitcoin and Crypto Analysis

Daily BTC Analysis

September 23, 2021
Bitcoin has enjoyed a positive trading session today, with prices up 7% post this morning's news that China had taken some small steps to avoid an immediate default from Evergrande. The addition of liquidity to the banking system may just be a shock absorber for next week's action, or it could be the first shot in a sustained program to assist with Evegrande's woes.

Either way, the world's markets, and Bitcoin in particular, have responded with strength. The one dent in today's enthusiasm: SEC chair Gary Gensler took an aim at stablecoins.

"We’re working right now under the guidance of Secretary Yellen and working on a report around stablecoins, and in the world of stablecoins, I do think that there would be some help from Congress.” 

We all know how lovely 'help' from Congress is. In some twisted way, an attack on stablecoins would actually be a short-term boon for crypto prices: After all, if you suddenly find holding them to be uncomfortable, best just buy some real crypto...

Jokes aside, the real story here is probably the generous yields paid on USDC and co, vs USD in a bank. Driving bank deposits into a negative yielding asset will only speed up the adoption of crypto lending on main street, so it's not surprising to see the SEC creating a little FUD.

Also not surprising, the whales continue to accumulate Bitcoin.

If you ever wondered who buys dips, there is your answer.

Where do they buy them from? See below.

Grouped together, the picture is clear. There will be a liquidity crisis in BTC in the not-too-distant future, and it probably wont be too long before the idea of it becoming self-fulfilling catches on.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin is holding a congestion zone support at $40,000, including the 100-day MA at $40,773. The RSI is reaching oversold territory, but momentum is negative and building.

Federal announcements regarding less tapering or more positive news from China’s Evergrande may be what saves the bulls, but caution is required in all trading positions right now: With volatility high and choppy trading conditions, reversals will be swift and brutal.

Resistance levels at the topside are unchanged at $42,600, $44,150, and $45,235.

Bitcoin has held support well today, with the bounce from $40,000 offering the bulls some hope. Resistance sits just above, at the $44,000 level, and this now represents a big test. Failure to break and hold above this level will see the market turn once again and look to trade back down to $42,500 and $40,000.

A break above $44,000 and nerves will settle, and the bulls can again consider a run at $47,485.

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