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Daily Bitcoin and Crypto Analysis

Daily BTC Analysis

December 30, 2020

Matt Blom, Head of Sales Trading

Let us cast our minds back to December 2017, when the CME's introduction of Bitcoin futures was in part blamed for the proceeding sell-off from the previous all-time high. A couple of weeks ago we asked: What will the price of Bitcoin be on the day the CME registers the largest Bitcoin futures open interest globally? Today, we have that answer: $27,000.

Yesterday, Bitcoin futures open interest on the CME stood at $1.66B, or 62,093 BTC, overtaking OKEx to capture the top spot and cement 2020 as the year of institutional adoption.


Long term, great news. Short-term, chance of a sell-off. Unlike other Bitcoin exchanges, the CME still observes things like weekends, trading hours, and most importantly for the current price of Bitcoin, Christmas holidays.

The chart below shows the potential problem. The rally over the Christmas period has left a gap between the high recorded on the CME on December 23rd and today's low, $26,080. Historically, these gaps are filled, meaning that before we can head off into the next leg of this rally, Bitcoin may well trade down to $24,605 and remove the question mark. With our short-term support at $24,655, the $24,605 level would not change the balance of the market. Oddly enough, from a bullish perspective, the sooner the gap is filled, the better, so people like me will stop talking about it!


The other big news yesterday was that President Trump signed a combined $2.3 TRILLION stimulus package.

Obviously, this money will be withdrawn from the USA's savings account...


Technical Analysis


Bitcoin continues to be well supported around the $26,000 area. Today, a brief drop to support, courtesy of the blue trend line above, has seen buyers arrive and take Bitcoin back to today's highs.



$27,295 will act as resistance, as the bulls stage the next push towards all-time highs at $28,387. The big test for BTC this week is to remain above $25,575. This has yet to have seen a test of resolve, which could be likely should we fail to break up through $27,295. $24,655 will act as a break, should we experience auto-liquidations on a dip below $25,575.



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