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Daily Bitcoin and Crypto Analysis

Daily BTC Analysis

November 25, 2020

The party-poppers are on hold until the release of this evening’s FOMC minutes from the Fed’s November policy meeting. We all know the drill by now, another stimulus = another Bitcoin rally. But, is there a real risk that the Fed hints they have done enough? If the US dollar rallies hard post the release of the Fed’s thoughts, Bitcoin could have missed a great opportunity to register a new all-time high.

The party-poppers are on hold until the release of this evening’s FOMC minutes from the Fed’s November policy meeting. We all know the drill by now, another stimulus = another Bitcoin rally. But, is there a real risk that the Fed hints they have done enough? If the US dollar rallies hard post the release of the Fed’s thoughts, Bitcoin could have missed a great opportunity to register a new all-time high.

Stocks are flying, Tesla’s market cap is now north of $500B, the Dow has just broken the 30,000 level. How much punch bowl do we really need? With stories breaking on new vaccines daily, dare we believe a return to normality is but months away? If the Fed thinks so, then we could be in for a brief moment of disappointment as we wait for that $20,000 print.

For today at least, all eyes will focus on the dollar index, which is currently hovering just above the critical support level of 91.75 — a break below here all but guarantees a new all-time high for BTC.

Speaking of all-time highs, the CME has just registered its highest ever level of open interest as institutions continue to expand their portfolios into Bitcoin.

The total number of open interest in Bitcoin options has also registered a new all-time high with over $5B of options positions in circulation.

There is just one all-time high missing from this list.

It’s now over to the Fed to complete the hat-trick.

Technical Analysis

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Bitcoin is up again. Today’s early morning sell-off has quickly rebounded and is fast approaching the $19,445 level. A push up through here will see the first attempt by the bulls to claim a new all-time high. It’s likely this happens fast, with a small pocket of profit-takers likely to be waiting around the $19,800 area, the last hurdle to overcome.

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On the downside, should we fail to trade above this year’s highs, then we will track back down to $19,050 with the disappointment likely to move prices lower, into the $18,265 support area. Given we have come this close to a new all-time high, we expect traders to finish the job within the next 24 hours.

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