Daily Bitcoin and Crypto Analysis

Daily ‌‌Macro And Crypto Update: Are We Seconds Away From an All-Time High?

October 20, 2021

Justin d'Anethan

You can probably feel it, see it, hear it. Crypto markets are higher. We haven’t reached new all-time highs but, boy, are we close!

As a reminder, the all-time high is $64,800. The high of this session is $64,400, and we’re currently closing a tad over $64,400. 

What’s driving the current enthusiasm? Essentially the same narrative that’s prevailed in the past few weeks: Bitcoin ETFs. BITO (the BTC Futures ETF) had its first trading day, with about $1 billion trading. That’s the second-biggest ETF debut. Of course, it’s almost like a self-fulfilling prophecy: people are buying because of the ETF, and because prices are due to go up, people are buying the ETF, which in turn pushes prices higher. 

In any case, many people who didn’t have exposure to BTC before now do. That’s big. 

You can see the BTC dominance continues to grow as BTC keeps on outperforming altcoins. But, it’s worth noting that I’m hearing talk about ETH now. Almost as if the BTC ETF is done already and people are looking at the next asset that could be offered as an exchange-traded fund. If that’s the case, it will follow the cycles we’re used to, meaning BTC leads, ETH follows, then alts ramp up.

To look at some charts, it’s interesting to see the BTC exchange netflows going from negative to positive. By the way, that’s not a bullish signal. It means people are depositing to exchange (presumably to sell) rather than taking off (presumably to hold). That being said, we’re essentially in neutral mode, and that’s in line with rising prices and the fact that we’re close to an all-time high. It’s worth keeping an eye on, though, in case it starts to go too positive (people depositing more than withdrawing).

Another chart from Glassnode shows us the 90-day realized profit and loss ratio and the reversal from more realized losses to now profits, which seems to say: We’re done with the capitulation of the May-June time and back on an uptrend, potentially a new leg up and into price discovery.

This is my attempt at trying to offer a balanced view. Ultimately, though, I remain, as always, decidedly bullish. There’s so much capital flowing through, and most of the selling seems easily absorbed by the market. 

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