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Daily Bitcoin and Crypto Analysis

Daily ‌‌Macro And Crypto Update: Strength Builds Up In Crypto And Macro Markets, Nudging Us Towards All-Time Highs

October 18, 2021

Justin d'Anethan

Strength: You can feel it all around. Macro markets and crypto markets are interlinked, at least to a certain extent.

Large and small players are buying risk. Capital is flowing into non-cash, non-bonds assets, equity, and definitely crypto.

A lot of people were readying themselves for a 2018-like event, and, for the longest time, I said this cycle wouldn’t be a repeat of the previous one. There’s just too much money, too many institutions, large investors, too much infrastructure, etc.

BTC’s all-time high is at $64,800 from April of this year. Over the weekend, we touched upon almost 63,000. Right now, in morning Asia time, we’re holding above $61,000.

We might be very wrong and end up never being able to break the 65K mark. But the path to where we’re at now has been paved by a strong green candle. There’s a boldness to how we approach this critical juncture. With at least one ETF approved by the SEC and maybe more to come, it seems reasonable to believe at least a percentage of the large institutions not yet exposed to BTC will take partial exposure… and that’s already massive. And retail investors will follow, of course.

On a short-term basis, though, a CryptoQuant chart shows us the rather high leverage ratio. In crypto, expecting the unexpected should be the norm, especially when trades become very one-sided. The temptation to push us down and force liquidate many leveraged longs is there and could happen before a real push higher happens. 

Another chart, from Glassnode this time, shows a plateau of exchange balances. Typically, with rising prices, you see holders of coins deposit some coins to exchanges, thus increasing the balance on exchanges, as they’re thinking of making a profit. This isn’t happening this time. It shows that most holders are just keeping their coins, not looking to sell even at those elevated levels. This is extremely supportive as it minimizes the selling pressure or reserve risk. It’s worth noting that 99.02% of all $BTC supply is now in profit. 

By the way, I barely mentioned alts. Actually, they’re doing ok in dollar terms, but you can see the BTC dominance rising above 46 again. I still think of this as an opportunity for cheap buys of alts relative to BTC to be cycled back in. For now, though, the focus is on King Coin, leading us higher. Once things settle down, the market can focus on more speculative but potentially higher returns play. Did you see how WOO token pumped yesterday?

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