Daily Bitcoin and Crypto Analysis

Morning‌‌ ‌‌Update—June 15—Macro and Crypto Markets

June 15, 2021
With investors looking at the next Fed monetary policy meeting, equity indexes rose yesterday. The S&P reached new records while the Nasdaq closed within 20bps of the all-time high.

After dropping for several sessions, yields rose, with the 10-year yield now close to 1.5%. It’s interesting to see equities rising while yields are bouncing back up.

It’s also interesting to see that BTC is also rising in that environment, albeit for other reasons. BTC fell almost 5% on Friday only to walk back on those losses and arrive back above $40,000 during the Sunday session. Over the weekend, prices gained over 13%, from 35K to 40K.

From a pure trading perspective, it’s interesting to note that the futures open interest across exchanges has stabilized (around $10-$12B) after the massive liquidations triggered towards the end of May. This can be seen as a positive, as a lot of the exuberance was taken out.

Another point to note is the BTC dominance index, back above 45, at almost 46. In the risk-on tilt of the weekend, alts strangely didn’t benefit. They’re in the green but just not as much as King Coin. 

Some outperformance did come from selected coins. DOT, for example, gaining 25%. MATIC rose almost as much but over three days. LINK also showed some strength, with 16% over the weekend. Conversely, ETH is staying in range, now at $2,550.

I’ve come across two very interesting charts this morning. One is from Glassnode and shows coins bought early on are now maturing, showing that holders did ‘hodl’ and are currently still very much in profit.

Another chart, more short-term, is from CryptoQuant and looks at the bitcoin to stablecoin ratio. It’s fascinating to see that the dip-buying has been constant, even at times when stablecoin supply overtook BTC’s relative supply. Naturally, indicators work until they don’t, but it’s supportive of the latest move up.

To move onto news, if you’re not glued to Twitter, you might be happy (or infuriated) to learn that Elon somewhat changed his tune about accepting BTC payments, saying that as miners moved towards greener solutions he would be open to reverting the decision. 

Couple that with the recent El Salvador news, the fact that Nigeria is discussing similar initiatives, and that MSTR completed their note offering. 

Things felt light enough to rise again.

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Bitcoin is still aiming to set a new record for the most consecutive up days in a row. We have had 8 up days in a row, the most since 2015 (the record is 10, set back in 2013). Prices will need to close above $40,035 to register day 9.

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Morning‌‌ ‌‌Update—July 30—Macro and Crypto Markets

July 30, 2021

Justin d'Anethan

Yesterday's trading was mixed. Early in the session, even with reports of economic slowdown in the US, traders were still buying, maybe thinking it solidified the accommodative Fed policies.

Morning‌‌ ‌‌Update—July 29—Macro and Crypto Markets

July 29, 2021

Justin d'Anethan

Yesterday’s narrative was somewhat bittersweet. On the one hand, Fed policies remain hyper accommodating, which is positive. On the other hand, the accommodating stance is based on lingering concerns about the economic recovery in the US (and also globally).

Daily BTC Analysis

July 28, 2021

Matt Blom

Bitcoin has fallen back below $40,000 today, as the denial from Amazon of the impending acceptance of Bitcoin as a payment method came through. Prices returned to our support level of $36,500 before rallying once more, a sign that this move may be supported by more than just click-bait headlines.