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Daily Bitcoin and Crypto Analysis

November 9: Daily BTC Analysis

November 9, 2021

Matt Blom

Bitcoin is up 0.7% on the day, following on from yesterday’s gains of 6.7%, to trade a new high of $68,568

Bitcoin is up 0.7% on the day, following on from yesterday’s gains of 6.7%, to trade a new high of $68,568. From December 2020, Bitcoin went on to print a new ATH every month until the final high print of $64,899 in April, then Elon and China happened, and we witnessed the shortest of Bitcoins bear markets. It’s taken 6 months to print a new high, and with October and November now ticked off, the bulls will be hoping for a repeat performance and new ATH’s every month till March.

 After the experiences of this year, March seems a long way off. However, risk is firmly on: The S&P has traded up for 17 of the last 19 days, a record not seen since 1971. Should the S&P finish higher today, that will be 9 straight days on a row, the longest consecutive gains since 2004.

 I escaped the desk today, and visited the World Digital Mining Summit. The first obvious change from previous years - the amount of suits - and there was only one crypto guy in a fancy hat, very disappointing. For all the blockchain events recently, the turnout at the mining summit exceeded what I have seen at ‘crypto’ based events. A telling sign, mining is now huge business, and with it, the demographic is shifting. My main take away – demand for new miners outstrips supply by many multiples.

 So today, it seemed appropriate to take a look at the miners.

Firstly, the miners have had a good year, which was confirmed by the smiles of the valet attendants as they lined up to park a procession of supercars.



It would appear the ‘hashcrash’ had its beneficiaries.

We are still seeing accumulation from miners, with the Miners Position Index remaining just below 0, although we are noticing the trend moving back towards 0, and with it, the possibility the miners sell into the strength of continued ATH’s. 

Bitmain, one of the worlds largest suppliers of Bitcoin mining equipment displayed a nice slide during their presentation. It showed Microsoft income revenues of $76B vs Bitcoin miners revenue of $23B. Which is a lovely statistic, but misses the point. Microsoft have received net income of $76B, the miners have a mark-to-market $23B notional number, that will require Elon to switch his Tesla shares for Bitcoin to crystallize the gains.

 Not accounting for the tax, obviously. 

Let’s hope the SEC forget they need to rule on a spot ETF in the coming days, for Bitcoin bulls, ‘no news, is good news’, has never been more pertinent.


Technical Analysis

Bitcoin has registered a new ATH of $68,568. We actually crossed the previous ATH late in yesterday's trade, today, momentum has taken us higher, but prices are now sitting just below $68,000. 

The market is expecting the rally to continue, with participants looking for a quick move towards $70,000. We have seen older wallets begin to sell BTC, so the $70,000 level may take a few days to materalize. Above $70,000 is blue skies, and with every move higher, confidence is building that BTC maybe be able to reach the much talked of $100,000 level before the end of 2021. 

 

Should the unthinkable happen, and we witness a sharp reversal, we expect dip buyers to be found at $64,800. The market is still in full bull-mode above $58,850, and we would expect any retracement to be met with significant support.  

Market Data



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