In the traditional space, last Friday’s session was marked by disappointing jobs results. The US added 200,000 jobs instead of the estimated (and hoped for) 500,000.
Towards the end of the session, though, the sentiment eased up a bit as people noticed that the three-month moving average was still a solid 550,000. If that pace remains, we’ll be back to the pre-pandemic level by July next year, which is ok.
In the crypto space, it feels unfair to say we’re ‘stagnating’ when BTC is, in fact, in the mid 50Ks but.. we’re not moving much. The weekend kept a steady range between 53K and 56K. The interesting move is the BTC dominance, rising in no uncertain terms while alts suffered.
Except for STX, that’s risen about 60% over the past seven days (with a wick even higher in the 80%), most alts have suffered a pullback over the weekend. In the past 24 hours, LUNA, MATIC, LINK, AVAX are all down around 7-8%, while BTC holds up.
The BTC Dominance index is now past 45, highlighting the transition.
With ETF rumors, gossip, and conversations firing around, I suspect a large chunk of investors, including definitely institutional ones, are focused on BTC. You can see a great chart from Chainanalysis looking at the growth of large holders (people with more than 1,000 bitcoins) growing steadily.
Another fascinating chart from JP Morgan (believe it or not) shows the stark transition and relative growth of BTC funds compared to gold ETF. It looks like more and more people are picking up on the value of the Bitcoin blockchain.
For diversified holders, though, I wouldn’t despair. If anything, those cycles are the opportunity to load up on your favorite alts at discounted prices and either sell back for a quick profit or hold long-term with hopes that the BTC dominance does retrace back. And I think it will.
Did you see the update from Glassnode on long-term holders? It seems that the base of strong-hand is growing, which is supportive for BTC, of course, but also, I suspect, for the whole space.
It looks like crypto isn’t correlated to traditional markets, at least not during this past session.
Investors aren’t ready to give up on equities yet.