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Daily Bitcoin and Crypto Analysis

October 20: Daily BTC Analysis

October 21, 2021

Matt Blom

Bitcoin. I was tempted to leave today’s report as a one-word homage to our favourite crypto.

Bitcoin.

I was tempted to leave today’s report as a one-word homage to our favorite crypto. But then we always love to read about our team when it’s winning, and after a long, hard, FUD induced summer, today, we are most certainly winning.

We have a new ATH, and it doesn’t feel like it will remain in place for long. The euphoria of the SEC decision to allow a Bitcoin ETF to begin trading has swept all FUD to the side. I can’t help but think that the fact those buying the ETFs are paying the ATH, as somewhat of a coincidence, but then, I wouldn’t want to suggest that it was always in the plan of the whales…

We all know it was. So, what happens next?

The market feels like it wants to perform what is known as ‘A blow-off top’. Where prices shoot up, seeming unstoppable, before the profit takers arrive and restore some sanity to the price action. The mid $80,000s seem like a nice place to stop, and ideally this would need to happen before the SEC turn the music off and announce that they will not be letting a Spot ETF add further oxygen to this fire.

We should also pay attention to the Mt Gox settlement. Today, the payout was agreed, with $1.7B in cash and 141,000 BTC to be returned to creditors, around $9.4, no $9.5, wait! $9.8 billion dollars. That’s a lot of Bitcoin for the market to absorb. The decision will be final and binding in one month, after that, the distribution will begin.

A positive view would be that holders don’t sell, and what we are really looking at is another $1.7B of inflows.

On a day like today, I wouldn’t want to spoil the mood, so let’s go with that.


Technical Analysis

Bitcoin swept away the ATH from April 14th today, to rally and leave a new number in our minds, $66,999 – easy one to remember! 


After a quick look earlier today, the bulls took charge and pushed BTC above $66,000 in a 30-minute buying frenzy. The $500M of purchase from yesterday’s ETF launch are enjoying day 2, and with little resistance overhead, Bitcoin has a shot at trading north of $70,000 before the end of the week.

The previous ATH will now become resistance, and the market’s reaction to a retreat to $64,890 will be closely watched. We expect the bulls to protect, but short-term profit takers could drive the market back towards $61,750 and potentially as low as $58,850.

On the upside, the major target remains $86,000. There will be resistance at round numbers, but until we see some selling pressure, it is too soon to place markers anywhere but $70,000, $75,000 and $80,000.


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