October 22: Daily BTC Analysis

Bitcoin is down 1.5% on the day, following on from a 5% loss yesterday, and it’s looking like we will see a sub $60,000 print over the weekend.

I have a feeling Sunday’s Weekender ‘Words of the Week’ graphic will just be one word: “ETF”. My suspicion that the lack of institutional buying during the weekend trading session may cause the rally to stall, has been front run by the market!

Regardless of the soft end to the week, the launch of the first Bitcoin ETF has broken records. The first Gold ETF to launch, back in 2004, crossed the $1B mark in 3 days: ProShares BTC ETF did it in 2 days, and now holds the record as the fastest ETF to cross that level.

Quite how the flurry of upcoming ETF’s perform will likely dictate whether this week’s ATH is quickly broken, or sits over-head for weeks and months.

It’s not just the funds flowing into these products that is causing the price to rise. PayPal reported a record day on Wednesday, with $145M of BTC traded, as money follows money into this space.

I’m expecting a volatile market over the next 12 days, with the SEC decision on a Spot ETF the top of my list for possible disappointments.

First things first, the Bitcoin bulls must navigate the first weekend without outsized inflows.

Hold on to your tin hats.

Technical Analysis

Daily

A flash crash in futures on a few exchanges, quite bizarre, highly recommend

re-assessing where you trade leveraged.   A bearish engulfing candle has been printed on the bitcoin daily chart. Oscillators are resetting from overbought levels but can pullback further. Bitcoin needs to take out the new ATH at $67,000 for continuation to the upside.

Support:     $62,000 and $58,500     

Resistance: $64,850, $67,000, and $70,000

MA:              50-day $50,557, 100-day $46,380, 200-day $45,232

RSI:              66.75% - bullish

MACD:         positive momentum - bullish

Weekly

The Bitcoin target is D on the chart, towards $88,000

Support:      $54,735 and $48,125

Resistance: $64,850 and $87,000 – $88,000

RSI:              68% - bullish

MACD:         positive momentum - bullish

Market Data