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Daily Bitcoin and Crypto Analysis

October 25: Daily BTC Analysis

October 26, 2021

Matt Blom

A report appeared suggesting China has asked the public whether they should reverse the ban on Bitcoin mining.

It's Monday, the ETFs are open for business and Bitcoin is up 4.2%. The 'sell on Thursday, buy on Sunday' could become the trade of the next few weeks. Seems so simple, the influx of cash stops at the weekend, so position yourself for the Monday open and ride the wave. 

China featured again today, but this time it was some type of reverse psychology FUD. A report appeared suggesting China has asked the public whether they should reverse the ban on Bitcoin mining. Voting yes and outing yourself as a Bitcoin believer, is probably a quick way to get your bank account reviewed. Voting no legitimises Bitcoin mining as an Industry. Of course, there is the option that this was always the plan! Ban it, buy it and then declare yourself open for business - if only the Chinese press office had a Twitter account...


Here is something a little less predictable.


CME futures open interest has gone parabolic. At its peak during the bull-run earlier this year, we saw $3.2B of open interest. On the 1st of October, it was $2.1B, as of Friday, $5.6B! It would seem that Bitcoin ETF's are good for business. 

We know that demand will be front loaded in these products, and that headwinds are on their way in the shape of Mt Gox locked liquidity hitting the market. But for now, the Monday to Thursday Bitcoin market seems unstoppable. 

Should the SEC permit the first spot ETF, it will interesting to see if there is a re-balancing between the two product offerings. After all, if you want to push the price up, buying spot will create the liquidity crunch required to ensure it's plane sailing.  

For the record, I still believe we will have to wait until 2022 for that great news to hit the wires. 

And for February 2140 for China to declare Bitcoin mining legal. 


Technical Analysis


 

30 Mins

The $60,000 support level held, which is positive for the bitcoin price intraday. We have seen these levels before, so little to add in the way of any new support and resistance levels.


Support:      $60,000 and $57,500    

Resistance: $64,850 and $67,000 ATH


Daily

Bitcoin has pivoted and bullishly engulfed after 3 days of pulling back. For the bears, a close below $60,000 is required, followed by a push through $58,500 to really turn the market negative. For the bulls, today was a good start but they need to drive the price higher across the week, and clear $67,000 to start more price discovery.


Support:     $58,500 and $53,300     

Resistance: $64,850 and $67,000 ATH

MA:              50-day $51,167, 100-day $47,254, 200-day $45,283

RSI:              65% - bullish

MACD:         slightly negative



Weekly

Back test of old weekly high from April at $60,050 has held for the first time in bitcoin history as a support level. This is extremely bullish and implies upside potential.


Support:      $60,040 and $54,700

Resistance: $64,850 and $87,000

RSI:              65% - bullish

MACD:         positive momentum - bullish


Market Data


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