October 6: Daily BTC Analysis

Bitcoin's march higher continues, with prices up 5.5% and the total market cap of Bitcoin once again north of $1T. Who wishes they sold the house and bought the dip? 

Today's break higher sets Bitcoin up for a return to $60,000, but the first goal is to trade back above the high of May 12th, $58,041. With some resistance up to the $62,000 level, this run could find the miners who have been patiently waiting to sell, come to the market, repay some loans and cover operational costs ahead of year end.  

We have seen a small uptick in activity, and this feels like the type of rally that can be sold in to, so we will pay close attention to this flow over the coming days. 

We have seen limited short auto-liquidations on this move, given the propensity of traders to believe in the long term price appreciation of Bitcoin, its not surprising to see less traders exposed on the short side due to leveraged positions. If the bulls are looking for a pain-point, then the next stop is $60,000, and if they don't find a pocket of shorts to force out, then confidence will only grow.

Technical Analysis

30 Mins

The short-term target on Bitcoin is $56,670, with the psychological level of $50,000 breached in Asian trading. Pullbacks have been shallow with a low of $46,891 in the last 24hr period. There is a congestion zone between $47,480 and $50,265.

BTC Intraday

Support:      $50,265,$49,400, $48,480 and $47,000.

Resistance: $53,165, $56,670, $58,850 and $61,750.

Daily

Bitcoin back tested the 50-day moving average overnight before continuing to the upside. See the chart below for an A-B-C-D wave structure with upside targets of $57,500 to $58,500.

Support:      $48,480, $47,000 and $45,235

Resistance: $51,075, $53,000, and $57,500

MA:              50-day $46,789, 100-day $42,115, 200-day $45,019

RSI:              61.8% - bullish

MACD:         positive momentum - bullish

Weekly

A bullish engulfing candle has been printed on the weekly, with implied continuation to the upside. Support seen at $43,000,where traders settled up the week prior. Resistance is now the September high of $53,000.

Support:      $43,000 and $40,000

Resistance: $53,000 and $57,500

RSI:              57% - rising

MACD:         positive momentum

Market Data