October 8: Daily BTC Analysis

This morning’s rally to just north of $56,000 could not be sustained, and given the current bullishness sweeping crypto, this is a little disappointing.

The initial rally was sparked after news that the US had approved the Volt ETF. Now, this isn’t a Bitcoin ETF, but it is an ETF that invests in companies that derive income or have exposure to BTC and feels like the first step on what has been a very long journey for Bitcoin to be an accepted asset class on Wall St.

JP Morgan released a report that highlights Bitcoin’s rising dominance as an inflation hedge over gold. At today’s prices, Bitcoin represents around 8.6% of gold’s market cap, but if the flows highlighted in the report continue, then this is becoming a one-way bet. In 2021, $10B has left Gold ETFs, whilst Bitcoin has witnessed inflows of $20B: and this is before the first US Bitcoin ETF has been approved.

In fact, if we look at the behaviour of holders, we can see the beauty of dollar-cost averaging! 

Long-term holders love Bitcoin, with over 80.5% of the supply safely tucked away in the pockets of hodlers. Imagine that chart just continuing to climb at the same pace?

The slight fly in the ointment is continued rumours of Tether holding Chinese commercial paper, something which Tether recently denied. These have surfaced again post-Tether CEO Jean-Louis van der Velde’s disappearance from Twitter. I’m sure deleting his Twitter account was well discussed internally before he pressed the button, but it’s not a great look. 

On the plus side, if you have Tether and need to get out, Bitcoin looks strong…

Technical Analysis

30 Mins

Bitcoin price has seen a high of $55,907 and a low of $53,340 in the last 24 hrs—finally, a reprieve for the bears with a consolidation in bitcoin price. The danger is that the short-term oscillators reset, and we get the next push higher, sooner rather than later.

Altcoins have performed reasonably well on the day.

Support: $52,950, $51,775 and $51,075

Resistance: $55,720 and $57,500

Daily

Bitcoin is consolidating today with $57,500 still the target and an extension to $61,200 likely. The oscillators remain extremely bullish with no signs of overextension with the RSI above 60% and in the bullish control zone.

Support:     $52,950, $51,075, and $49,400  

Resistance: $57,500, and $61,200

MA:             50-day $47,361, 100-day $42,708, 200-day $44,995

RSI:             67% - bullish

MACD:        positive momentum - bullish

Weekly

On this longer timeframe, the target is $87,000. See the A-B-C-D Harmonic. Oscillators: the RSI and the MACD are both bullish.  

Support:     $52,950 and $43,000

Resistance: $57,500 and $61,200

RSI:             66% - bullish

MACD:        positive momentum - bullish

Market Data